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A Spike in Productivity

April 1, 2024 | Commentary

  • The basic definition of productivity is how much is produced in each hour of labor. It is far easier to think about the concept than it is to measure it.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) maintains a series on productivity created by combining their data on hours worked with the Commerce Department’s estimate of GDP. As one would expect, productivity improves over time, but the quarter over quarter or year over year changes in measured productivity can be volatile.
  • The most recent data shows an increasing rate of productivity that some are claiming is proof of AI’s benefits. AI’s direct impact so far is likely not large enough to explain the data, but it holds considerable promise for the future.
  • The latest spike in productivity is largely the result of massive capital expenditures by companies desperate to find labor saving solutions in a market that continues to have many more job openings than qualified workers to fill them.

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