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Bitcoin Revisited

September 1, 2023 | Commentary

  • In the last decade there have been moments of rabid interest in cryptocurrencies.  Over that time, it has become increasingly evident that these are primarily trading vehicles without a strong economic rationale as mediums of exchange or stores of value.
  • Through most of Bitcoin’s history, volume of trading has been positively correlated with the direction of price.  Enthusiasm and interest ebb and flow with the price.  But in 2023 this is not the case.  The price has almost doubled from its lows, but trading activity continues to tail off.
  • For many years, the major players have been unregulated, global entities. The FTX fraud was a stark, but not isolated, reminder of this.  Increased regulation in the U.S. may provide more protections, but in no way creates or endorses any legitimate economic purpose for cryptocurrencies.
  • The Federal Reserve, by increasing policy interest rates over the last 18-months, has given investors something missing from their portfolios over the previous decade.  A positive return on the safest assets may encourage investors to return to more traditional allocations and perhaps be less attracted to optimistic schemes with questionable fundamental purpose.

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