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Can We Believe the Data?

February 1, 2024 | Commentary

  • Collecting and disseminating economic data that are closely followed by market participants is a major activity of several federal agencies.  The voluntary surveys that support that data have seen multi-year declines in participation rates.
  • Declining participation rates and regular revisions to previously posted data have led some commentators to suggest that the data are erroneous and are misleading analysts looking for market direction.
  • Effective surveys canvass the relevant populations in a random and unbiased manner.  There is no indication that federal government surveys fail these standards even as response rates have declined.
  • Traders who try to discern the direction and magnitude of the economy and market from the latest statistical releases are often likely to be acting on noise in the system.  This does not help long-term investment performance but does add to short-term market volatility.

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