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How Healthy is the US Consumer?

December 1, 2023 | Commentary

  • Recently there have been numerous reports about rising credit card balances and increasing delinquencies, suggesting that the U.S. consumer is in dire straits, which could lead to a major spending pullback and recession.
  • Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP, so the health of this important segment is of critical importance to the future path of the economy.
  • A closer examination of consumption and spending shows that while the recent trends are in fact as reported, the burden of servicing debt obligations has remained below the historical norms over the past 40 years.
  • The post-pandemic trend of job creation, low unemployment and gradual recovery from the extreme economic disruptions caused by Covid shutdowns make it difficult to see any real likelihood of a near-term recession.  A meaningful policy mistake by the Fed or a severe, unforeseen external shock could change this.

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