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Labor Market Dynamics Tell A Story

June 1, 2024 | Commentary

  • As in all major recessions, unemployment jumped with the pandemic’s shutdowns fouryears ago, but not all segments of the labor market were hit equally. How different groupsof workers have fared since suggests where the recovery story is likely to go.
  • Employment in retail had been flat for years before the pandemic. It has recouped therecession losses but shows no signs of further growth. This reflects a fundamental shift inhow Americans shop, continuing the trend toward e-commerce.
  • The plateauing of professional jobs stands in stark contrast to the continued robust growthin construction. Leisure and hospitality have just recently returned to pre-pandemicemployment levels, suggesting more growth there can be on the horizon.
  • The overall labor market is in better balance than it was two years ago, but it remains tightfor many labor groups. This will likely keep wage growth at least at the level of inflation,making the Fed’s 2% goal a challenging one to achieve.

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