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Portfolio Diversification and Correlations

July 1, 2022 | Commentary

  • Bonds are often thought of as diversifiers to stocks.  When stocks fell in 2008 and 2020 there was a flight to quality in U.S. Treasuries that reinforced that view.  So far in 2022 the decline in stocks has been largely caused by rising interest rates.  Diversification with stocks and bonds has not delivered the traditional expected benefits.
  • Correlation is a key concept to estimate potential benefits from diversification.  The less correlated asset prices are the greater the reduction in portfolio volatility.  But correlations move around and increasing correlations have made 2022 particularly challenging.
  • One of the arguments for Bitcoin has been its uncorrelated nature to traditional assets like stocks and bonds.  While true for many years, the pattern for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin versus traditional stocks is now one of high correlation.
  • Blockchain functionality is developing in many other ways to improve the efficiency and transparency of the traditional financial services. 
  • The elevated market volatility observed so far in 2022 is likely to persist until there is greater clarity on Fed policy, inflation and geopolitical events.  While keeping a broadly diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and real estate is important, adding non-traditional assets like Bitcoin may meaningfully further add to volatility.

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