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The Labor Market and the COVID-19 Virus

April 1, 2020 | Commentary

  • The global COVID-19 virus pandemic has forced draconian changes in lifestyle, severely damaging economic activity and putting millions of people out of work.
  • Uncertainty about the pace and medical impact of the virus, and its ultimate meaning for company earnings and the global economy, has produced the greatest market volatility since the financial crisis of 2008. 
  • The Federal Reserve has acted quickly and decisively to ensure ample liquidity in the system.  Congress and the President have authorized a $2 trillion aid package that includes direct transfers to citizens and loan guarantees to affected businesses.  The challenge will be how quickly these programs can be executed to provide relief.
  • As unemployment grows, talk of a 1930’s style depression will increase.  A depression is highly unlikely because of the initial strength of the economy when the shock hit, the layers of government assistance, and a belief that the fight against COVID-19 will be won as testing increases dramatically and vaccines and therapeutics come on line.
  • How the labor market evolves will be both an indicator of current conditions as well as a sign of things to come.

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