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The Labor Market Revisited

May 1, 2023 | Commentary

  • The COVID shutdowns turned a robust labor market into a disaster almost overnight.  It has been recovering since but remains short of pre-COVID health in many ways.
  • 4.1 million new jobs have been added to the economy in the last twelve months and the pace in Q1 showed no material slowing.  Labor Force Participation still lags pre-pandemic levels but has been creeping upward, an encouraging sign that the recovery can continue.  This is vitally important in a consumer-centric economy like ours.
  • When the Federal Reserve began raising policy interest rates to combat rising inflation, many experts saw an imminent recession on the horizon.  More than a year later with interest rates almost 5% higher, recession concerns persist but are still uncertain as to the arrival date or severity.

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