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The mystery of wages unraveled

August 1, 2017 | Commentary

  • There is a mystery as to why wages appear to be growing more slowly than past recoveries given that unemployment is so low. Part of the answer lies in the composition of the official measures. The reported statistic gives the growth in the total wage pool. As the mix of workers changes either because of the economic cycle or demographic events like the retirement of peak earning baby boomers, the calculated average ebbs and flows in sometimes unintuitive ways.
  • The official wage numbers offer some insights into the state of the economy, but they need to be considered in conjunction with other data points like total employment and the demographic composition of the labor force.
  • Today’s real wage growth at roughly 2.5% per year is often cited as a disappointing statistic, but when combined with a growing, younger labor force it provides reinforcement for the belief that our consumer-oriented economy is on a steady upward path.
  • Someday there will be the next recession and another bear market in stocks. We just don’t know when they will occur. There are pundits who have been calling for both on a regular basis since 2011, and they have been very wrong. Given the strong labor market and rising real wages, the Fed is probably wise to be raising policy interest rates and planning to shrink its balance sheet.

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