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Transition in Global Energy

April 1, 2026 | Commentary

  • The conflict in Iran and the effective shutting of the Strait of Hormuz is another geopolitical event that has once again disrupted the global petroleum market, causing higher prices and fears of macroeconomic consequences.
  • This event echoes previous global disruptions caused by the Arab oil embargo (1973), the Iranian Revolution and Iran/Iraq War (1979-80), and Russia's invasion of Ukraine (2022). The nature of the U.S. petroleum industry has changed markedly over this window, reducing the worst macroeconomic risks for this country.
  • 20% of the world's oil consumption normally exits Iran and neighboring Arab states through the Strait of Hormuz. The vast majority of this oil is destined for Asian countries, with very little sent to North America.
  • Trade sanctions imposed on Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine initially disrupted flows of oil on a scale comparable to today. The big lesson is that despite traditional conflict and trade warfare, global commerce in commodities is highly adaptable in working around obstacles.
  • There are strong economic incentives for both Middle Eastern producers, including Iran, and global consumers to see a resumption of trade. How long this will take is still unknown, but while it may take years for oil prices to retreat back to pre-Iran War levels, history says this will happen.

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