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What Are the Odds of That?

October 1, 2023 | Commentary

  • Trying to predict the future can take up much of our time and attention. Since futureevents are rarely certain, we turn to odds to guide our thinking. How these odds aredetermined varies widely.
  • In financial circles a popular activity is opining on the likelihood that the Federal ReserveOpen Market Committee (FOMC) will raise, lower or hold steady the Fed Funds Rate, theirprimary policy tool. There is an active futures market from which the odds of Fed actionmay be derived almost continuously from current market pricing.
  • Quoting odds seems to give forecasts greater credibility, but this shows the risk of falseprecision. It is useful to remember a Yogi Berra line. “It’s tough to make predictions,especially about the future.”

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