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What Do We Really Know About Wages and Employment?

November 1, 2019 | Commentary

  • Recent employment statistics have been painted as a “mixed bag” for the economy.  Solid jobs growth and the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years were positives.  Slowing average hourly earnings growth was cited as a negative.  A deeper dive into the data reveals a more nuanced picture.
  • Average hourly earnings are based on surveys of employers and do not account for the changing composition of the work force.  Recent research by regional Fed economists suggests that correcting for this bias indicates wages growing at more than 5% annually versus the 3% growth BLS has reported over the past three years.
  • Arriving at the unemployment rate involves more than just counting the number of people currently out of work.  The denominator in the equation is the official labor force, which varies for both demographic and economic reasons.  Misreading the labor force can lead to confused notions about full employment and what wage pressures may or may not exist in the economy.
  • The September BLS employment reports paint a solid economic picture.  Anyone calling for a recession in 2020 is implicitly relying on a significant external shock as a trigger because history shows that the kind of growth being currently experienced in this high employment, consumer driven economy does not reverse on its own.

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