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What is a “Normal” Yield Curve?

February 1, 2025 | Commentary

  • Market analysts seem obsessed with trying to guess the path of Federal Reserve policy decisions and therefore the future of interest rates. Most of this activity is focused on short-term trading. Long-term investors should be more concerned with their portfolio balance of risk assets and safer assets, which should be determined by what to expect over a longer horizon.
  • A normal Treasury yield curve starts with the shortest maturities matching inflation and longer maturities containing a term premium to compensate the buyers of that paper for taking additional market risk until maturity. The yield curve today reflects the Fed's restrictive policy to lower inflation further which provides a premium to inflation for owners of short treasuries.
  • In addition to the duration of fixed income, credit risk is a critical decision factor. With credit spreads near historical lows, the risk of reaching down the credit ratings now seems high relative to the modest pickup in yield.
  • Market experience since the Global Financial Crisis has been anything but normal. If the Fed's policies on Fed Funds rates mesh appropriately with fiscal policies governing taxes, spending and tariffs, there is a chance the yield curve could settle back into a normal range, but there will likely be noise along the way.

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