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What's Wrong With the Labor Market Today?

December 1, 2021 | Commentary

  • The U.S. economy continues to enjoy a robust recovery from the sharp COVID-induced recession beginning in Q2 of last year.  Supply chain disruptions and a shortage of workers to fill more than 10 million open jobs have hobbled but not defeated the ongoing rebound.
  • Many economic, demographic and policy factors combine to shape the supply of labor at any point in time.  The COVID pandemic caused a severe drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which has since only partially recovered.
  • Young workers may be reluctant to return to a traditional workplace because they have unvaccinated children at home that they fear could be infected.  Retirements have spiked in part because of COVID fears but also because the rising stock market and home prices make retirement more viable.
  • As the economy evolves toward more onshoring of activity as discussed in last month’s Commentary on supply chains, this will add to the demand for skilled labor, further raising wages.  At some point as progress against COVID becomes more assured, people on the sidelines should be drawn back into the labor force by these economic incentives.
  • Some of the changes in the LFPR are likely permanent.  If labor supply remains weak relative to demand, there will have to be large investments in labor saving technology and improved training for the existing work force.  This will ultimately improve productivity and provide support for further economic and market growth.

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