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Why is trading on macroeconomic data so hard?

March 1, 2019 | Commentary

  • Many of the great trades in history have been based on macro themes. George Soros counting on a British pound devaluation and John Paulson buying cheap insurance against a housing crisis are just two well-known examples.
  • While there are many other instances of profitable macro trades, history is also filled with countless examples of mediocre results and much worse.  This raises the question, why is it so hard to profit from macro themes and data?
  • There are multiple challenges. One needs to get the theme and timing right. One also needs to identify the right trading vehicle to express the theme. One needs to do all of this before other act and prices have already adjusted. These challengess are heightened by the vast sums of money as allocated to these strategies today. 
  • As more and more capital is invested in strategies trying to be less correlated with the equity market, competition for the best ideas has exploded. This has resulted in recent years in much reduced performance over what was enjoyed 20 years ago. Macro trading is a hard, highly competitive space, and is likely to stay that way.

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